Abstract: At the working meeting of the National Machinery Industry Association held recently, Cai Weici, executive vice president of the China Federation of Machinery Industry made the latest forecast on the development trend of the machinery industry throughout the year. The trend of the machinery industry is picking up. In 2009, the gross output value and added value of the machinery industry increased by about 12%, and the profits increased by more than 10% year-on-year. The export growth rate was about -15%.
Although predictive indicators have increased by two percentage points from the beginning of the year, Cai Weici stated that this is still a conservative estimate. Analysis of the trend of the machinery industry next year, he believes that if the policy can be sustained, the machinery industry will show a moderate upward trend, and it is expected that the growth rate of production and sales can reach 15% or so in next year, and the profit growth rate can reach about 10%. The growth rate of export foreign exchange can reach About 15%.
“The impact is huge, steadily rising, urgently needed to be transformed, and the future is bright.” Cai Weici uses these four sentences to summarize the current trend of China's machinery industry.
From January to August this year, the growth rate of production and sales in China's machinery industry fell to the lowest point in recent years. The industrial added value increased by 10.60% year-on-year, and the total output value was 6608.9 billion yuan, an increase of 9.70% year-on-year. In 13 major sub-industries: Agricultural machinery and automotive industry Thanks to the national policy, the production and sales situation is clearly better; the construction machinery, heavy mining, and mechanical basic parts are higher than the machinery industry's average growth rate; the growth rate of internal combustion engines, instrumentation, and text-based equipment has fallen sharply.
At present, many institutes of general technology for mechanical industry have restructured themselves into “self-supporting companies”. The relatively complete R&D system does not exist yet; increasing the basic technical level requires continuous investment, but the implementation is difficult; Buying a host computer often uses the "imported key components" as a precondition, so that the high-end infrastructure will lose its market for innovation and development. Therefore, the consolidation of the foundation still requires a long period of continuous efforts.
From January to August, the machinery industry completed a fixed asset investment of 877.8 billion yuan (including 43% of equipment), an increase of 40.38% year-on-year, an increase significantly higher than the national manufacturing industry (27.3%) for the same period, and 38% of the machinery industry of the previous year The increase has risen. Cai Weici reminded enterprises that at present, risks are gathering in hot products such as automobiles, large-scale hydraulic presses, power transmission and transformation equipment, wind power equipment, and construction machinery. At the same time, the sharp decline in the export market has not yet reached the inflection point.
Based on the current economic situation at home and abroad, Cai Weici analyzed the favorable and unfavorable factors that affect the future operation of the machinery industry. (Source: China Industry News)